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	<title>NeoTicker Blog &#187; Random Thoughts on Trading Systems</title>
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		<title>Teaching a Grade 4 on Probability</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2010/08/10/teaching-a-grade-4-on-probability/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=teaching-a-grade-4-on-probability</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2010/08/10/teaching-a-grade-4-on-probability/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 14:27:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading - General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=2041</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Before summer started, my son was learning probability at school and his teacher gave his class some interesting questions to solve. The background is that they&#8217;ve just learned fraction, decimal numbers, etc.
(Lawrence: This is a copy of the article I have written for the new daytradingbias.com site last week. Enjoy!)

The Coin Toss Game
How likely you [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/02/18/performance-sensitivity/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Performance Sensitivity'>Performance Sensitivity</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/06/18/understanding-the-market-in-a-statistical-way/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way'>Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/01/18/an-excel-worksheet-on-trading-performance/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: An Excel Worksheet on Trading Performance'>An Excel Worksheet on Trading Performance</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Performance Sensitivity</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/02/18/performance-sensitivity/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=performance-sensitivity</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/02/18/performance-sensitivity/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Feb 2009 23:46:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Add-ons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading - General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/02/18/performance-sensitivity/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For most traders, when tracking their own performances, or measuring the performance of trading systems, a tendency is to look for almost perfect improvement over time. We always want the performances to get better, stay in top shape, etc. In reality, such push can be harmful and can backfire.
Attached is an Excel spreadsheet showing the [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2009/01/18/an-excel-worksheet-on-trading-performance/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: An Excel Worksheet on Trading Performance'>An Excel Worksheet on Trading Performance</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2010/08/10/teaching-a-grade-4-on-probability/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Teaching a Grade 4 on Probability'>Teaching a Grade 4 on Probability</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2007/03/25/enhancing-trader-performance-dr-steenbarger/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Enhancing Trader Performance, Dr. Steenbarger'>Enhancing Trader Performance, Dr. Steenbarger</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Studying Your Data Across All Bar Sizes</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/06/16/studying-your-data-across-all-bar-sizes/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=studying-your-data-across-all-bar-sizes</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/06/16/studying-your-data-across-all-bar-sizes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Jun 2008 18:59:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading - General]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/06/16/studying-your-data-across-all-bar-sizes/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have you ever wonder why you like to use 5-minute bars to trade something, and then, all of a sudden, switch into another time frame like 15-minute bar to monitor another instrument. Why we somehow have different level of comfortability with different time frames? Here is an interesting way to study an instrument to find [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/07/01/average-range-vs-average-true-range-which-one-is-better/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Average Range vs. Average True Range &#8211; Which one is better?'>Average Range vs. Average True Range &#8211; Which one is better?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/04/03/a-comparison-of-forex-brokerage-data/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: A Comparison of Forex Brokerage Data'>A Comparison of Forex Brokerage Data</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/06/18/understanding-the-market-in-a-statistical-way/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way'>Understanding the Market in a Statistical Way</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The 10 Year Challenge on Index Future Trading Systems</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/05/02/the-10-year-challenge-on-index-future-trading-systems/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=the-10-year-challenge-on-index-future-trading-systems</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/05/02/the-10-year-challenge-on-index-future-trading-systems/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 May 2008 17:04:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/05/02/the-10-year-challenge-on-index-future-trading-systems/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Going through a chart of the past 10 to 12 years in Emini S&#038;P, I cannot help thinking if there is a trading model that can work well throughout the whole period of time with reasonable draw down and good performance year after year.
There was the great bull run from 1997 to 2000. 
Then the [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/07/18/whats-the-difference-between-daytrading-systems-and-classic-trading-systems/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Whats the difference between daytrading systems and classic trading systems?'>Whats the difference between daytrading systems and classic trading systems?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/11/20/forex-trading-perspective-from-an-index-future-trader-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)'>Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/07/30/a-candlestick-pattern-for-trading-emini-sp/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: A Candlestick Pattern for Trading Emini S&#038;P'>A Candlestick Pattern for Trading Emini S&#038;P</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Formula 301 &#8211; #7 Random Entry System</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/07/04/formula-301-7-random-entry-system/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=formula-301-7-random-entry-system</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/07/04/formula-301-7-random-entry-system/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Jul 2006 16:47:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Formula 301]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indicator Library]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=237</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Unlike the previous tutorials that we focus on how to write a trading system, we are going to explore a special kind of trading systems &#8211; the ones that utilize randomization.

The Importance Of Studying Random Systems
Trading systems with random entries (or random exits) are very useful tools for the analysis of the underlying instrument that [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/03/20/compress-series-trading-system/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #8 Compress Series Trading System'>Formula 301 &#8211; #8 Compress Series Trading System</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/08/07/in-early-stage-of-system-development-avoid-position-sizing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: In Early Stage Of System Development, Avoid Position Sizing'>In Early Stage Of System Development, Avoid Position Sizing</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/11/07/formula-301-5-money-management/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #5 Money Management'>Formula 301 &#8211; #5 Money Management</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 4 What Happen When My System Place A Market Order?</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/05/02/trading-system-101-part-4-what-happen-when-my-system-place-a-market-order/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=trading-system-101-part-4-what-happen-when-my-system-place-a-market-order</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/05/02/trading-system-101-part-4-what-happen-when-my-system-place-a-market-order/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 May 2006 02:00:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=206</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For many beginners, there is always confusion about the mechanism of order placement. I am going to provide more details about that in this article.

Understanding Update Scheme On Bar Completion
When an indicator is first loaded, it recalculates its historical values bar by bar (see the article Formula 201 &#8211; #10 Update Scheme (By Tick vs. [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/01/trading-system-101-part-3-practical-considerations/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 3 Practical Considerations'>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 3 Practical Considerations</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/11/20/forex-trading-perspective-from-an-index-future-trader-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)'>Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2007/08/10/working-with-the-current-hectic-market-environment/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Working with the Current Hectic Market Environment'>Working with the Current Hectic Market Environment</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Formula 301 &#8211; #2 Basic Controls</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/17/formula-301-2-basic-controls/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=formula-301-2-basic-controls</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/17/formula-301-2-basic-controls/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Oct 2005 01:19:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Formula 301]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=111</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are going to study another basic trading strategy, buy close and sell next open. At the same time, we will go over the basic options in NeoTicker for the control of trading systems.

Buy Close Sell Next Open
Similar to the Buy Open Sell Close system from the first tutorial, this system is just 3 lines,
longnextclose [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/11/07/formula-301-5-money-management/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #5 Money Management'>Formula 301 &#8211; #5 Money Management</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/07/formula-301-1-trading-system-concept-and-our-first-system/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #1 Trading System Concept and Our First System'>Formula 301 &#8211; #1 Trading System Concept and Our First System</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/03/28/formula-301-6-automatic-brokerage-position-management/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management'>Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Formula 301 &#8211; #1 Trading System Concept and Our First System</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/07/formula-301-1-trading-system-concept-and-our-first-system/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=formula-301-1-trading-system-concept-and-our-first-system</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/07/formula-301-1-trading-system-concept-and-our-first-system/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 08 Oct 2005 02:54:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Formula 301]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In Formula 301, we are going to focus on writing trading systems with the indicator formula language. The assumption is that you know the basics of writing indicator with the formula language. I will present trading systems that illustrate the usage of specific trading system related writing techniques.

(Lawrence &#8211; I understand that Formula 201 is [...]


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<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2008/03/20/compress-series-trading-system/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #8 Compress Series Trading System'>Formula 301 &#8211; #8 Compress Series Trading System</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/03/28/formula-301-6-automatic-brokerage-position-management/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management'>Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 3 Practical Considerations</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/01/trading-system-101-part-3-practical-considerations/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=trading-system-101-part-3-practical-considerations</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/01/trading-system-101-part-3-practical-considerations/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2005 04:21:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=96</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many traders spent weeks, even months to create their perfect trading models. Happy with the results they see in their backtesting, and tracked the real-time performance for certain period of time, they are ready to take the leap of faith to trade their models live.
Could that be just a bit too early? Well, that depends [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/05/02/trading-system-101-part-4-what-happen-when-my-system-place-a-market-order/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 4 What Happen When My System Place A Market Order?'>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 4 What Happen When My System Place A Market Order?</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/11/20/forex-trading-perspective-from-an-index-future-trader-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)'>Forex Trading &#8211; Perspective from an Index Future Trader (Part 2)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/06/25/trading-system-101-part-2/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 2'>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 2</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>In Early Stage Of System Development, Avoid Position Sizing</title>
		<link>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/08/07/in-early-stage-of-system-development-avoid-position-sizing/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=in-early-stage-of-system-development-avoid-position-sizing</link>
		<comments>http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/08/07/in-early-stage-of-system-development-avoid-position-sizing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2005 17:00:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lawrence Chan</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Random Thoughts on Trading Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trading Systems That Work]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=56</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many beginners in trading system development like to play with position sizing scheme. It feels great when you get a great equity curve with spectacular performance by simply twisting what position sizing rules to use and experiment with various sizing parameter settings. I have some bad news for you &#8211; such system will not likely [...]


Related posts:<ol><li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/26/formula-301-3-intraday-moving-average-crossover-with-position-sizing/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #3 Intraday Moving Average Crossover with Position Sizing'>Formula 301 &#8211; #3 Intraday Moving Average Crossover with Position Sizing</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2006/03/28/formula-301-6-automatic-brokerage-position-management/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management'>Formula 301 &#8211; #6 Automatic Brokerage Position Management</a></li>
<li><a href='http://newsletter.neoticker.com/2005/10/01/trading-system-101-part-3-practical-considerations/' rel='bookmark' title='Permanent Link: Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 3 Practical Considerations'>Trading System 101 &#8211; Part 3 Practical Considerations</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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